Sir Keir heads to Washington

Sir Keir Starmer requested a meeting in Washington with Donald Trump. The two G7 leaders first met over dinner at Trump’s Mar a lago resort in Florida ahead of the recent US election. The personal relationship has been friendly, with UK ministers and the new UK Ambassador backing down from previous comments critical about Mr Trump. They have been at pains to distance the current government from Labour representatives’ clumsy interventions in favour of a Joe Biden victory.

There are several issues outstanding between the two sides, which may come up in the talks. The UK has primarily flagged the wish that the US provides a security guarantee for Ukraine following any peace agreement. The US side has not published a formal agenda.

Ukraine

The UK wants the US to offer a guarantee or back-up of any European forces committed to maintaining or keeping the peace in Ukraine if an agreement is reached with Russia. The UK will repeat its offer to provide some troops for deployment, alongside those offered by France. Germany and Poland have declined.

The prime minister will doubtless stress his statements urging Europea countries to spend more on their own defence and will point to his recent announcement of an increase of 0.2 percentage point of GDP in defence spending tom 2.5% in 2027. The president will probably thank him for these contributions but stress the need for Europe in its entirety to do more.

Mr Trump will also almost certainly remind the UK that 2.5% is unlikely to be sufficient. The US does not want Ukraine becoming a member of NATO or gaining the NATO support guarantee in effect all the time the Russian tensions continue.

The thorny issue of Diego Garcia

The Trump team thinks the UK’s handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and a leasing agreement that then provides money to Mauritius to lease back the US naval base is a bad idea. The UK has said the US could veto this proposal. Neither side has said it will be decided the base’s fate at this meeting. The legal base for the UK case is poor and might be questioned by the US.

Planning permission for a new Chinese embassy in London

The US is said to be concerned that the UK government is minded to allow China to develop a large new embassy near the Tower of London, given the sensitivity of the location and worries about Chinese actions this could facilitate.

Reciprocity on tariffs

President Trump has not threatened the UK with a universal 25% tariff in the way he has the EU. This may reflect the fact that the UK has removed some of its old EU tariffs since leaving the union. However, an EU-style 10% tariff is still imposed on UK imports of US vehicles, compared with the US’s 2.5% tariff on imports. The president is hostile to the imbalance.

Mr Trump also sees high UK tariffs on foods, supported by product standards that discriminate against some US beef and chicken as unwelcome. Tariffs are likely to be discussed. The UK side has not produced a draft Free Trade Agreement or a public offer on tariffs, whilst the US has briefed about some of the obstacles to US exports into the UK as well as the EU.

Collaboration on digital and AI

The UK will seek more collaboration in the artificial intelligence (AI) space. The US may raise issues over what they see as high taxes on US companies, targeted digital taxes that mainly hit US companies, as well as regulations that they think are too restrictive for digital success. The large fines in UK social media legislation are not welcomed in Washington.

Possible outcome

The two leaders are likely to remain outwardly friendly. They will agree about the need for Europe to do considerably more to strengthen its own defences. President Trump is also likely to say that his investment offer and deal with Ukraine will help Ukraine but will stop short of offering Ukraine NATO membership. He will be optimistic about a possible peace in Ukraine.

Chagos and the Embassy issues may not get resolved, but the prime minister might be told why the US has worries about these changes. They will need to get their Trade Representatives into serious talks to try to resolve future disagreements about tariff levels and other trade barriers.