Securing the peace in Ukraine

President Trump swept to power promising to end the Ukraine war as soon as he took office. He has now found it is going to take a bit longer but is seeking to drive a rapid timetable by negotiating directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin whilst keeping Ukraine informed of what concessions they would need to make.

He has got Ukraine to say they want peace and are prepared to consider sacrifices of territory lost. He has got President Putin to talk to him and says there will be a meeting soon. Russia and Ukraine remain unreconciled with very different views of what outcome they would accept. Ukraine upset President Trump over signing the minerals deal which the US saw as a necessary part of any peace settlement.

What Russia wants

There is no definitive statement of Russian war aims or indications of what they would accept as a bottom line for a stable peace. It is thought Russia wants to be taken seriously by the US, to have more normal diplomatic and commercial relations with the West after a period of sanctions and bans and wants to keep the territorial gains it has made.

Moscow sees more pro-Russian eastern Oblasts of Ukraine as natural areas for Russia to govern, as with Crimea annexed in 2014 with no effective response from the West. Russia will doubtless be pleased to see the tensions between the US and President Zelensky as they have in public said the US needs to stand up to Ukraine’s demands more.

Russia will also be pleased to see splits in the European part of the alliance. Russia is adamant that Ukraine must not join NATO, and they are against surrogate western military guarantees that seek to replicate features of the NATO defence guarantee to members.

What Ukraine wants

Ukraine under President Zelensky wants Russia to leave all its lands. It wants to join NATO to give it a better guarantee about any future invasion and wants to complete its membership requirements to join the European Union (EU) as a full member.

President Zelensky represents the pro-EU groupings within Ukraine, who took control of the government after the protests of 2014 removed a more pro-Russian President. Ukraine has put up a brave fight against a larger invading army, but it needs substantial weapons supply from NATO countries to keep fighting the war. It has had to argue hard and long to get more and better weapons supplied, as under Joe Biden’s leadership NATO was cautious about quantity and quality and only allowed a build up over time. Ukraine has received large grants to help it run the government and war to date and will need large sums to help rebuild the country after the war, dealing with substantial war damage.

What the US wants

President Trump wishes to end the large expenditures on weapons and financial aid that have been going to Ukraine. The US has been the largest single donor and has contributed funds similar to the European total, whilst providing more of the weapons.

Using the wider figures, President Trump argues the US contribution has been considerably larger than the rest. He speaks about the need to end the deaths and destruction and argues that you cannot have peace without sitting down and compromising with President Putin.

He offered President Zelensky a deal that entailed the US making investments in oil gas and minerals in Ukraine when peace was established, with the US enjoying profits from the investments but with jobs and payments to Ukraine as well. This deal was modified in negotiation to give more to Ukraine, but the row in the Oval Office meant President Zelensky did not sign the deal as planned last week.

The US is strongly against offering NATO membership to Ukraine and has a veto over any new member. The US is also against sending any US or NATO military force to help police the peace settlement. The US wants to end its payments either by agreeing a peace, or by simply stopping them if Ukraine will not accept a peace negotiated with Russia. President Trump has said he sees the EU as an institution out to exploit the US.

What the EU wants

The EU wants Russia to leave Ukraine and wants Ukraine to become a member of the EU. The EU has divisions within its own ranks. Hungary is friendlier to Russia. Poland and Germany decline to offer troops for any peace keeping force though they have two of the larger armies, and Spain also declines. France leads a group of countries who will contribute to a force if peace breaks out.

The EU represented by two of its Presidents, the President of the Commission and of the Council, has committed itself to increasing spending on EU defence, and has issued statements about the need for more common procurement, larger stocks of munitions and accepting a duty to provide more for the collective NATO defence.

The Commission will present to the 6 March meeting proposals for a higher EU defence budget to be paid for by EU borrowing. They will also discuss relaxing fiscal rules, allowing member states to spend more on their own defence whilst increasing borrowing to pay for it. They have been critical of President Trump but have not, as yet, offered an alternative peace plan.