Getting to net zero – the UK approach

This has been achieved by ending electricity generation from coal, adding substantial wind and solar capacity, and running down high-energy-using industries such as steel, ceramics, petrochemicals and oil refining through high energy prices and carbon taxes.

Carbon-dioxide emissions are calculated for international comparison and to meet treaty obligations by the amount of carbon dioxide generated by activities in the country concerned. Switching to importing high-carbon-dioxide-generating products means the carbon dioxide emissions rests with the producing country, not the consuming country.

The Climate Change Committee

The UK established a committee of enthusiasts for the journey to ‘net zero’ to monitor progress, set out the tasks by sector and propose remedies to get there on time. Its recent report states that, so far, the UK has kept to its own targets designed to get the country to net zero by 2050.

It also said that things must speed up from here to stay on target. It argues that in lots of areas too little progress has been made, with reliance to date on a big contribution from the electricity generating sector. It points out there has been no increase in electricity demand from a major switch of industry and households to rely more on electrical power and to phase out their use of gas and other fossil fuels.

The committee says that the UK is on track with one of their twelve monitored areas. So far, the UK is on its proposed track for the introduction of charging points for battery cars. It goes on to point out that its path from here requires a big acceleration in roll out. The car industry is complaining that the shortage of charging points is a deterrent to people buying battery cars.

In the other areas, progress is behind targets. Not much peatland has been restored, insufficient tree planting has taken place – and solar expansion is too slow. Very few people are taking up heat pumps. Battery van sales have been disappointing – and agriculture has much to do.

Recommendations to get back on track

It wishes to stick with plans to phase out gas boilers quickly, promoting heat pumps instead. It wants to see a trebling of offshore wind installations, a doubling of onshore wind and a fivefold increase in solar. It wants an early delivery of 10% of homes heated by heat pumps compared to the 1% today. It wishes to see faster progress to get to 100% of all new vehicles sold being battery compared to the 16.5% they last recorded.

It wants the government to find another way of paying the renewable levies placed on electricity bills. It wants no new petrol or diesel cars from 2030. it thinks the government should have a better plan to decarbonise the public sector, which it directly controls. It wants more subsidy for contracts for difference auctions to buy more green electricity. It wants an industry to be charged more to burn gas for their processes. It wishes to see more extensive tree planting. It thinks the country needs a stronger adaptation plan to climate change, given the likely global increase in carbon dioxide despite UK efforts. They wish to see a significant reduction in van traffic.

What is likely to happen?

Whilst polling tells us most people think there is global warming and support government doing something about it, it also tell us most people in the UK say they do not want or cannot afford a battery car and a heat pump. Tackling the impact of vehicles and of domestic gas heating systems is now seen by the Committee as central to getting carbon dioxide down. It wishes to see reductions in meat eating to reduce animal husbandry, cuts to jet travel, and a major switch in how industry powers itself and generates heat to transform materials.

All of these are difficult to speed up. Consumers need persuading that the new products are as good or better than the ones they have already got. They want the costs of these green devices to come down and would appreciate help with buying them where they are expected to renew with a green version before the old gas or petrol machine is worn out. They wish to see faster progress with renewable energy. It is impeded by delays in getting planning permissions and agreement to build more grid, essential to be able to route more renewable power to the places where it is needed.

Much of the UK’s success in getting emissions down has come from shifting more to a service-sector economy away from industry and fossil fuel extraction. The going gets tougher from here, as it requires substantial changes in consumer behaviour and large investments by business and consumers.

The UK is unlikely to hit the interim target of net zero electricity by 2030. There will be plenty of further investment opportunities in green power and products. Government is likely to make changes to the way electricity is priced and to the taxes and subsidies that seek to change consumer behaviour as it seeks to electrify more of our lives. High electricity prices in the UK are a present barrier to more success.